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Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Mortality, Fertility, Immigration and Population Growth

I have never thought that population growth is a very complicated subject matter to study and comprehend. We need to consider many factors to make projections like mortality rate, fertility rate, and the influx of immigrants.

Many say that nature has a way of correcting itself. When there is too much heat inside the earth, volcanoes explode to unleash it. When rivers become heavily silted, nature will form a new river. However, these examples are catastrophic to both people and property. If we will follow that argument, if there are too many people, many people will die.

I think it is morbid to think that mortality can neutralize population growth. The fact that population has been steadily on the rise proves that even if hundreds of thousands of people die each year, growth never stops.

As of late, USA is the third largest country in terms of population with 311 million people as of this year. It is next to India with China on top.

Its mortality rate is 8.38 deaths per 1,000 people per year as of July 2010 estimate. Its growth rate is 13.5 births per 1000 population with a fertility rate of 2.06 children born for every woman. According to statistics, around 50.7 percent of the US population in 2009 is women.

Meanwhile, net immigration has contributed one-third of the present population growth of the US. Experts believe that the post-1992 net immigration will comprise 86 percent of the population growth by the year 2050.

Experts calculate US population to reach 392 million by 2050.

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